It’s that time of year again. The leaves are about to turn, pumpkin spice is back, and bickering lawmakers have less than one month to avoid a government shutdown.

If Congress can’t reach a new debt ceiling agreement by Oct. 1, we’re looking at furloughed government employees, travel disruptions, the closure of public institutions, and a whole lot worse.

Even the shortest, partial shutdown can have a lasting ripple effect.

The good news: Government shutdowns never last very long. Even though ‌Democrats and Republicans like to play chicken when it comes to public debt, they always back down and strike a deal (eventually).

Who knows? We might get lucky this time around and avoid a shutdown entirely. But to help you prepare for the worst, let’s break down what a looming government shutdown means for your wallet:

How Does a Government Shutdown Affect the Stock Market?

Investor confidence revolves around market certainty — and nothing is certain in the days leading up to a potential government shutdown. 

As a result, stock market volatility is common when lawmakers are nearing a funding deadline. That being said, dips in performance aren’t quite as dramatic as you might expect.

Before a shutdown, equity markets tend to falter and some traders slow their activity. Bond yields normally go down, as does the value of the dollar. But trading goes on, and not all stocks are negatively impacted.

Believe it or not, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) actually rallied roughly 10% during the last full shutdown in ‌2018-19. Why?

Most investors understand that even though a shutdown brings uncertainty, it’s only a temporary distortion. Shutdowns aren’t a fundamental disruptor to corporate earnings, and so they rarely have a lasting impact on a big company’s bottom line. As a result, there aren’t any mass selloffs.

There are some exceptions to this rule, though.

Publicly traded companies that rely on federal contracts like defense or government permits often ‌face delayed payments or project slowdowns because of a shutdown. That does drag on their earnings outlook.

For example, companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD) posted considerable losses at the start of the last shutdown in December 2018. But it’s also worth pointing out that their share prices bounced back pretty quickly. So even companies that rely on government operations don’t need to stress too much.

In fact, the entire market tends to enjoy a modest, short boom when a shutdown ends.

It’s true that shutdowns amplify short-term market swings and briefly hurt some industries. But generally speaking, a shutdown doesn’t lead to long-term bear markets. It just means investors should proceed with caution until prices correct.

What Would a Shutdown Mean for Social Security?

The biggest shutdown concern for a lot of Americans is whether Social Security checks will still go out. If this is you, don’t panic. You should still get your payment.

Because Social Security benefits are classed as mandatory spending, they don’t fall under this recurring political argument on annual appropriation.

That being said, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is still affected during a shutdown. 

The SSA normally furloughs all but essential workers during a shutdown, so they’ll be operating with a skeleton staff. That means you should expect delays if you need to ask questions or process a claim. 

This could ultimately impact your household income, so you should plan ahead to make sure you can pay your bills during a shutdown.

And What About Student Loans?

Borrowers with active student loans are going to be hit harder by any potential shutdown than retirees. Unlike Social Security, student lending activity revolves around daily operations and workflows getting done over at the Department of Education (DoE).

Federal student loan payments and automatic billing systems do remain in place during periods of shutdown. But loan servicers generally require DoE support to process payment plans, forgiveness applications, or adjustments. 

That means loads of borrowers could face delays and be forced to overpay for weeks because nobody at the DoE is around to approve plan changes. Those overpayments are only going to compound existing stresses over rising living costs and high inflation.

Meanwhile, any errors that arise because of student loan backlogs can also result in missed payments. That hurts your credit score, which can have a lasting impact on your ability to borrow or secure future service and utility contracts.

The silver lining here is that shutdowns never last very long.

And at the end of the day, government shutdowns don’t really have a direct impact on household bills or costs. What they do affect is your ability to pay those bills. 

If you’re a government employee or working for a company reliant on government contracts, your income might dry up literally overnight. You’re then going to find it very difficult to cover your bills and debt repayments. But Social Security checks should keep on going out, and some essential support services will still be operating in one form or another.

The key to surviving a shutdown is to plan ahead. 

If you’ve got a federal loan and want to make a change to your plan, do it before Oct. 1. And if you’re an investor who’s planning to sell shares in a company mixed up with government contracts, hold until prices most likely enjoy a post-shutdown rally.

Otherwise, you could run into a major headache.