Netflix (NFLX) has come a long way from mailing red-envelope DVDs, becoming a global giant in subscription streaming. Now, as a more mature media powerhouse, it continues to evolve, fueling growth through its ad-supported tier, password-sharing crackdown, and bold moves into live content. With second-quarter earnings season heating up, the streaming giant is one of the key names set to report Q2 2025 results on Thursday, July 17.

The Q2 results could play a pivotal role in shaping NFLX stock’s near-term trajectory, especially as investor sentiment turns cautious after a recent downgrade over valuation concerns. With much of the recent optimism already priced in, Wall Street will be laser-focused on subscriber growth, ad revenue momentum, and forward guidance.

For Netflix stock fans, July 17 is not just another earnings date. It is a critical checkpoint in the company’s ongoing growth story.

About Netflix Stock

Netflix is a global leader in media and entertainment, commanding a market capitalization of approximately $537 billion. The company has evolved into a dominant streaming platform and continues to innovate through its ad-supported tier, password‑sharing monetization efforts, and expansion into live content such as sports and interactive experiences. As Netflix targets a $1 trillion valuation by 2030 through international expansion, advertising growth, and other initiatives, its near-term trajectory remains highly sensitive to Q2 earnings performance and forward guidance.

So far in 2025, Netflix has delivered a standout performance, with NFLX stock surging 41% year‑to‑date (YTD), dramatically outpacing the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) gains of 6%. The stock's powerful rally pushed shares to a 52-week high of $1,341.15 on June 30, before a modest pullback this month. While positive business momentum boosted the share price, mixed sentiments from analysts introduced some short-term volatility. 

From a valuation standpoint, NFLX stock is priced at 49 times forward adjusted earnings and 13.6 times forward sales, clearly a premium compared to both its historical averages and sector peers. But the premium is starting to look justified. With innovative moves into ads, gaming, and more, Netflix is expanding its turf. As new revenue engines fire up, that steep valuation could turn from red flag to runway for long-term growth believers.

Netflix Beat Q1 Projections

Netflix reported its Q1 2025 earnings on April 17, delivering a robust financial performance that exceeded some market expectations. Revenue came in at $10.5 billion, representing 12.5% year-over-year (YOY) growth. Operating income surged 27% annually to $3.3 billion, while operating margin expanded to a striking 31.7%, highlighting strong cost discipline. Netflix posted EPS of $6.61, a 25% increase from the prior-year quarter and topping analyst forecasts. 

Notably, this quarter marked the company’s first earnings report without disclosing subscriber counts, a strategic shift toward emphasizing revenue growth and profitability.

Netflix also highlighted a standout content slate, with its series Adolescence and films Back in Action, Ad Vitam, and Counterattack all entering its “all-time most popular” rankings. Moreover, the company successfully launched its ad tech platform in the U.S., with a broader rollout planned for other ad-supported territories. In the live content arena, WWE RAW debuted on Netflix during Q1, consistently securing a spot in the global Top 10. 

Netflix Fans, Circle July 17 for the Q2 Earnings Reveal

Netflix’s Q2 2025 results are due on July 17, with management guiding for continued revenue and margin strength. The company expects Q2 revenue of about $11.04 billion, representing a 15% YOY increase. Plus, it targets an operating margin of 33.3%, up from 31.7% in Q1. EPS for the quarter is estimated to be $7.03. 

Management also anticipates advertising revenue to double in fiscal 2025, building on the initial success of its ad‑supported tier. The firm underscores that ad monetization, global price adjustments, and momentum in live sports content are key catalysts expected to bolster performance. The company has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 targets, expecting revenue between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion as well as an operating margin of 29%.

Wall Street consensus mirrors management’s upbeat tone, with analysts forecasting Q2 EPS to grow by 45% YOY to $7.06. For fiscal 2025, analysts anticipate EPS to jump 28% annually to $25.42, then climb another 22% to $31.14 in fiscal 2026.

What Do Analysts Expect for Netflix Stock?

Needham and KeyBanc have recently adopted a more bullish tone on Netflix, raising their price targets and reinforcing their ratings. Needham reaffirmed its “Buy” rating and increased the target from $1,126 to $1,500, citing Netflix’s exceptional labor productivity. Meanwhile, KeyBanc maintained its “Overweight” stance and raised its price target from $1,070 to $1,390, attributing the uplift to the potential for sustained low-double-digit revenue growth driven by initiatives like live events, price increases, and advertising expansion.

In contrast, Seaport Global Securities shifted to a “Neutral” rating from a “Buy,” suggesting that much of Netflix’s upside may already be factored into current valuations. The firm indicated less than 10% upside potential from current levels. Citi also maintained a “Neutral” rating with a $1,250 price target, noting that Q2 revenue and operating income are expected to just slightly exceed consensus. 

Netflix stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Out of 45 analysts covering the stock, 27 recommend a “Strong Buy,” three give a “Moderate Buy,” and 15 analysts stay cautious with a “Hold” rating.

While NFLX stock is trading at a premium to its average analyst price target of $1,239.17, the Street-high target of $1,600 signals that the stock can still rise as much as 27% from current levels.